The 2020 PGA Championship was one of the most anticipated golf events in recent years. Played at TPC Harding Park in San Francisco, this tournament brought a unique combination of course difficulty, shifting weather conditions, and a historic player field. Even though the event has passed, the interest in understanding what influenced predictions, how experts identified best bets, and what factors shaped the eventual outcomes remains huge for bettors, analysts, and golf fans.
This guide breaks down all the key insights, player performance indicators, betting angles, and prediction strategies that defined the 2020 PGA Championship—and still help bettors today learn how to evaluate major tournaments effectively.
Whether you’re a sports bettor, a golf enthusiast, or someone analyzing PGA betting trends, this article will give you a deep and practical understanding.
Overview of the 2020 PGA Championship
The 2020 PGA Championship marked the first major of a pandemic-impacted year. Originally scheduled for May, the event was moved to August 6–9, becoming the first major after months of golf disruptions and no crowds in attendance.
Key Points:
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Venue: TPC Harding Park — Par 70, 7,251 yards
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Conditions: Cool temperatures, dense rough, coastal winds
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Winner: Collin Morikawa (-13)
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Runner-up: Dustin Johnson (-11)
The setup favored players with strong tee-to-green consistency, sharp iron play, and the ability to adjust to coastal winds—a critical factor in betting markets.
Course Breakdown: Why TPC Harding Park Favored Ball-Strikers
TPC Harding Park isn’t the longest course used in PGA Majors, but it demands precision. Fairways are narrow, greens are protected by bunkers, and roughs were grown thicker than usual.
Important course characteristics:
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Driving accuracy was more important than raw distance.
Bettors who focused on players with high fairway-hit percentages gained an edge. -
Strokes Gained: Approach was the #1 predictor of success.
TPC Harding rewards elite iron players, which explains Morikawa’s strong performance. -
Coastal winds influenced scoring.
Players experienced shifting winds, especially in afternoon rounds, impacting odds mid-tournament.
Best player profile for predictions:
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Consistent ball striker
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Strong tee-to-green performer
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High SG: Approach and SG: Putting
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Proven performance in windy conditions
Key Metrics Bettors Used for 2020 Predictions
Successful predictions for the 2020 PGA Championship relied on analytics more than name recognition. Here are the metrics that shaped sharp bettors’ decisions:
▶ Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Identified players with consistent ball control—a major advantage at Harding Park.
▶ Strokes Gained: Approach
Historically, the biggest predictor of PGA Championship success.
▶ Recent Form
Golfers coming off strong finishes in July (e.g., Collin Morikawa, Dustin Johnson) were undervalued early in betting markets.
▶ Performance in Past PGA Championships
Players with major-championship consistency were priced more favorably early.
▶ Putting Performance on Poa Annua
Harding Park’s poa annua greens required players with proven performance on West Coast courses.
Top Predictions Before the Tournament
Analysts highlighted several favorites before the event based on form, stats, and course compatibility.
🏆 Pre-Tournament Favorites
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Brooks Koepka
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Two-time PGA champion
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Elite in majors
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Strong SG metrics
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But coming off injury concerns
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Rory McIlroy
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Historically good at Harding Park
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But inconsistent form in 2020
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Bryson DeChambeau
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Red-hot off multiple top-10 finishes
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Driving distance advantage, though accuracy was questionable
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Justin Thomas
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Entered as World No.1
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Excellent recent form
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But the most interesting opportunities came from players outside the top 10 favorites…
Sharp Bettors’ Underdog Picks
While public bettors leaned toward big names, sharp bettors found value in:
▶ Collin Morikawa (28/1)
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Elite iron game
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Calm under pressure
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Consistent top finishes prior to the event
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Exceptional on hard courses
This prediction proved historic.
▶ Dustin Johnson (22/1)
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Recent win before the event
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Strong SG metrics
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Underrated because of injuries earlier that year
▶ Jason Day (35/1)
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Excellent performance on poa annua
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Good form leading in
These undervalued picks created strong returns for informed bettors.
Live Betting Indicators That Shaped Best Bets
Live betting was hugely profitable for 2020 PGA bettors who watched form changes closely.
Best live betting signals:
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Players gaining momentum with birdie streaks on back nine
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Golfers adjusting well to afternoon wind patterns
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Stable iron play under pressure
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Mistake-free rounds (no double bogeys)
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Favorable pairings that influenced rhythm and tempo
Players like Morikawa and Paul Casey climbed betting boards as their consistency became undeniable.
Best Bets Based on Expert Models
Experts highlighted several winning bet types:
1️⃣ Outright Winner Bets
The best-value winner picks were:
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Collin Morikawa
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Dustin Johnson
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Jason Day
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Daniel Berger
2️⃣ Top 5 / Top 10 Finish Bets
High-value players included:
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Tony Finau
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Xander Schauffele
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Paul Casey
3️⃣ Matchup Bets
Popular matchups were:
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Morikawa vs. Berger
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Johnson vs. Koepka
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Casey vs. Fleetwood
Matchup betting was easier because the course rewarded consistency rather than heroic shots.
4️⃣ Round Leader Bets
Bettors targeted aggressive players like Tommy Fleetwood and Bryson DeChambeau for round-leader positions.
Why Collin Morikawa Became the Smart Bet
Collin Morikawa’s victory wasn’t accidental. Bettors who followed data-driven models saw several advantages:
He led the PGA Tour in:
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Strokes Gained: Approach
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Fairways hit
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Par-4 scoring
He was top 5 in:
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Tee-to-green
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Ball striking
His final-round 64 sealed his legacy and confirmed the predictive accuracy of these metrics.
Lessons for Future PGA Betting
Although this article focuses on the 2020 PGA Championship, these insights apply to all future major betting strategies.
Takeaway #1: Course fit matters more than popularity
Ignore hype—focus on data.
Takeaway #2: SG: Approach is the strongest predictor in majors
Year after year, this trend continues.
Takeaway #3: Weather plays a bigger role than many expect
Coastal winds especially.
Takeaway #4: Live betting offers the highest edge
Especially on players with clean scorecards and strong tee-to-green form.
Takeaway #5: Value often lies beyond the favorites
Most profitable bets in 2020 were mid-range odds.
10. Final Thoughts: What 2020 Taught Golf Bettors
The 2020 PGA Championship provided one of the clearest examples of how analytics + course fit + player form can lead to highly accurate predictions.
Smart bettors considered:
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Weather
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Ball-striking metrics
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Putting surfaces
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Recent form
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Head-to-head matchups
…and these insights led many to huge profits, especially those who backed Morikawa or Johnson early.
The lessons from 2020 remain incredibly valuable for analyzing and predicting all future PGA majors.
